For the last nine Olympic Games two countries have had a stranglehold on the women’s K4 500 sprint competition – but that record run is under serious threat in Paris next year.
Ever since 1988 crews from Germany or Hungary have won K4 gold at every Olympics. When you consider both East Germany and Hungary boycotted the 1984 Games, the year the women’s K4 500 debuted, it is an incredible paddling record.
This week in Duisburg we will learn the make-up of the 10 boats which will compete in Paris next year. It would be almost unthinkable to see a line-up that doesn’t include these two sprint powerhouses, but there is no doubt the rest of the world has caught up.
The German team especially have fallen back. They didn’t medal in Tokyo, ending a run that has seen them win a medal at every Olympics they’ve attended, and they have not won a world championship medal since 2017. There have been several crew changes in that time, and the pressure will be on in front of hometown fans in Duisburg next week.
But there have been some good signs of late, including a second behind Poland at the recent European titles. Denmark was third and Hungary fourth.
Hungary finished outside the medals at the 2022 ICF World Championships, the first time in almost 40 years. The last time there was no Hungarian women’s K4 crew on a world championship podium was back in 1983.
The last time Hungary missed a K4 Olympic medal was 1996. Since then they have won three consecutive silver medals and then three gold on the trot, the latest in Tokyo.
Like Germany, there have been crew changes since Tokyo, and there are likely to be even more before Paris next year – if they earn their quota next week!
The Path to Paris is relatively straightforward – the top ten ranked boats, representing at least four continents, at the end of this week’s competition will be able to start making plans for next August.
On current form the top ten finishers should include four continents. Europe is a given, New Zealand and Australia should both make the final for Oceania, China announced itself as a genuine Asian contender at this year’s ICF World Cups, and Mexico or Canada, or both, should finish top ten for North America.
It will mean everyone who makes the final should be safe. The two next fastest in the semi-finals will also be in..
The best crew in the world since the Tokyo Olympics has been Poland. They won the world championships in Halifax last year, suffered a momentary blip when they tried a crew change in Szeged, but were back in winning form in Poznan.
They also won the past two European titles.
Germany has had a world cup fourth and a third, to go with its European silver, while Hungary finished last in Szeged and did not contest Poznan. Likewise, New Zealand (3rd), Australia (5th) and Mexico (7th) were among the crews who only attended the world cup in Hungary.
Which makes it difficult predicting who will make up the top ten. Spain was second at the Szeged world cup, while Denmark was fourth in Poznan, definitely the weaker of the two world cup competitions, but third at the European titles.
The big absence this week will be the K4 from Belarus, who won silver in Tokyo and bronze in Rio and London.
As early as Wednesday we will start to get a picture of who will be going to Paris. The fastest qualifier in each of the three heats will go straight into the A final, giving them at least one foot on the plane to France.
